I've seen many attempts using economic modelling to project jobs growth and even for the best pundits it often turns out a rubbery exercise in crystal ball gazing, especially at the industry level.
Nevertheless, the Australian Government Department of Education, Skills and Training provide a Labour Market Information Porthole, which has employment projections out to five years across the national economy down to the 3-digit industry sector level.
The latest projection for the November 2020 quarter shows that over the five years to November 2025 national employment is projected to grow by 991,600 persons (7.8%) to around 13,730,000.
Accordingly, Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to continue to make the largest contribution to national employment growth increasing by 249,500 over the period to November 2025.
Together with Accommodation and Food Services (139,900), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (131,100), and Education and Training (118,600), these four industries are projected to generate almost two-thirds (around 64.4 per cent) of total employment growth.
While 17 of the 19 ANZSIC industries are expected to grow over the period, jobs in the Manufacturing as well as Information, Media and Telecommunications industries are anticipated to decline by around -5,900 (-0.7%) and -7,500 (3.9%), respectively.
Breaking the statistics down to the 2-digit sector level, within the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry jobs in agriculture are expected to increase while falls are anticipated in aquaculture as well as jobs within support services.
Jobs in mining are expected to continue to power ahead in all sectors including coal, gas, ores, non-metallic minerals and exploration services.
While there has been a policy interest in increasing jobs in the national manufacturing industry, employment is expected fall across many sectors particularly transport equipment, textiles, leather, clothing and footwear as well as food product manufacturing.
Robust jobs growth is anticipated within the Construction industry across all subsectors with moderate growth expected within utilities.
Jobs in Wholesale Trade are anticipated to remain flat with modest falls in basic materials as well as grocery, liquor and tobacco products wholesaling. While jobs in road transport as well as warehousing and storage services are anticipated to lead the growth within the Transport, Postal and Warehousing industry.
Employment in Retail Trade is expected to grow moderately driven by growth within food as well as store-based retailing excluding food, fuel and motor vehicle retailing. Strong jobs growth is projected within the Accommodation and Food Service industry, particularly the food and beverage sector.
Jobs in Information Media and Telecommunication are expected to fall within publishing and telecommunications services, while an increase in roles within the Administrative and Support Services industry is anticipated to be driven by building cleaning as well as pest control services.
While employment within broadly defined finance is expected to fall modestly over the period, roles within insurance and superannuation as well as auxiliary finance and insurances services are projected to rise.
Jobs in rental and hiring services are expected to remain relatively flat with moderate growth in property operators and real-estate services. Strong growth is projected across the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry.
Jobs in the Healthcare and Social Services industry will continue to grow strongly along with Education and Training, while roles in administration will lead the growth in the Public Administration and Safety industry.
Finally, jobs in the Arts and Recreation industry are projected to increase with strong growth anticipated for roles in sports and recreation activities. Within the Other Services industry, jobs in repairs and maintenance are expected to remain relatively flat with increases in the personal and other services sector.